Demand slows down in production capacity next year

Polaris Thermal Power Network News: Right now is the peak period of winter coal, but the coal market in winter has not come as expected. Since the National Development and Reform Commission issued a coal "limit order", the coastal thermal coal prices have generally come back to varying degrees , continue to present the situation of "no busy season".

At present, the price index of the Bohai-Range thermal coal, which is the benchmark for domestic coal prices, has fallen for six consecutive weeks.

According to the analysis, according to the current coal price drop rate, it is expected that by the end of this month, the price adjustments of most coal transportation and marketing companies will complete the price adjustment task according to the limit price as scheduled, and the offshore coal offshore closing price of the Bohai Rim 5500 kcal market will be reduced to 800 yuan/ton.

Judging from the current market trend, the recent downward pressure on the coal market price will increase, and the market may continue to decline in the later period.

Demand for capacity increase will slow down next year The deputy chairman of the Provincial Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, Yang Deyu, said that this year's national coal production is expected to reach 3.4 to 3.5 billion tons, but the integrated production capacity of the Shanxi coal industry has only released about 60%, and a large number of mines in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, etc. are working on Accelerate the construction. It is initially expected that in 2012 the country’s new production capacity will be more than 100 million tons. In addition, as the demand of major economies in Europe and the United States and international coal prices continue to decline, domestic coal imports are expected to maintain a certain growth. In 2012, the domestic coal supply is expected to reach about 3.6 billion tons.

At the same time, since the country has strictly controlled credit flows and restricted real estate since the beginning of this year, the demand for and prices of steel and building materials have fallen, especially in the context of the expected arrival of the “inflection point” in the domestic real estate market. Domestic steel prices have plummeted across the board, and most steel coke enterprises The measures for mass production purchases have been gradually adopted, resulting in a straight decline in the demand for smelting clean coal.

Since the beginning of this year, the country has successively introduced a number of economic control policies and implemented a prudent monetary policy, stabilizing prices, reducing housing prices, controlling inflation, and preventing overheating. GDP growth reached a high of 9.7% in the first quarter this year, and in the second quarter. It fell back to 9.5% and 9.1% respectively in the third quarter and the economic growth rate showed a quarter-to-quarter slowdown.

"According to the overall control target of the country's GDP growth of around 7% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period and the continued slowdown in economic growth since the fourth quarter of this year, it is expected that GDP growth will fall back this year, and coal demand growth is expected to increase. Slowly, but considering the current status of China's energy structure, it is conservatively estimated that the national coal consumption will maintain a growth rate of more than 5% in 2012, said Yang Deyu. According to the National Twelfth Five-Year Plan and the State Energy Administration's report, the state will limit the approval of thermal power projects, accelerate the development of hydropower, and promote the application of UHV power transmission and transformation technologies, which will, to some extent, curb the growth of coal demand in coastal areas.

Coal imports surged Recently, the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that China's coal imports reached 22.14 million tons in November, hitting a record high for imports in a single month in the past 10 years.

In the first 11 months of this year, China imported a total of 116.56 million tons of coal. Pushed into the whole year, China's total coal imports in 2011 exceeded 170 million tons.

As of this year, China has been the net importer of coal for the third consecutive year.

Although the current scale of coal imports is less than 200 million tons, coal imports have increased significantly, and exports have continued to shrink, indicating that China's coal supply and demand have been deeply involved in the international market balance, and have become an important indicator of coal production and consumption.

Coal expert Huang Teng, former general manager of China Coal's coal export business, said that although imported coal will not fundamentally change the supply and demand relationship in China's domestic coal market, imported coal cannot be ignored in market prices. The role of benchmarking is that when the price of imported coal is relatively low, the trend of rising prices in the domestic coal market is inhibited; when the price of imported coal is firm, the domestic coal price will rise even more strongly.

Yang Deyu believes that due to the impact of the European debt crisis, international coal prices have fallen significantly, and are lower than domestic coal prices. Power generation companies import more attractive coal, which also reduces consumer demand for domestic coal, and the recent coastal areas The coal market has caused shocks and impacts.

The Ministry of Finance recently released news that, starting from January 1, next year, China’s import and export tariffs will be partially adjusted. Next year, China will implement a low tentative tax rate for imports of more than 730 commodities, including coal, with an average tax rate of 4.4%, which is more than 50% lower than the MFN tariff rate.

According to analysis, this move will effectively promote the growth of imports of coal and other energy products, can ease the frequent domestic "oil shortage", "power cuts" and other energy shortages, while also playing a role in domestic coal prices.

The provincial market is more affected by external influences. This year, the province’s annual output of raw coal is expected to reach 150 million tons, and the total coal consumption will exceed 300 million tons. The net amount of coal imported will remain at around 200 million tons annually, and the coal market will maintain strong demand. Basic balance between supply and demand, said Yu Xiuzhong, director of the Economic Operation Department of the Provincial Coal Industry Bureau.

Due to the decrease in coal reserves and the increasingly complex mining conditions, the province's conflict between coal-producing provinces, large coal-producing provinces, and small resource provinces has become increasingly prominent. The degree of dependence on coal resources outside the province has also continued to increase. At the same time, our province is located in the east China region where China's economy is most developed and where coal demand is most prosperous. It is not only a major coal-producing province in China, but also a major coal-consuming province in China, and is an important distribution center for the “Northern Coal South, West Coal East”. . Therefore, changes in the supply and demand relationship in the national coal market will directly affect the trend of the coal market in Shandong.

In particular, in the second half of this year, with the opening of the Beijing-Shanghai Express Railway, the freight capacity of the Beijing-Shanghai line has been significantly increased, and coal has become the channel for the “Rail Import into Lu”, “Ship into the Lu”, “River into Lu”, and “Foreign Power into the Lu” channels. With smoother traffic and the initial success in the construction of coal storage bases in the province, the overall supply of coal resources in the province is relatively adequate, resulting in high volatility in the current coal market.

"The supply and demand relations in the coal market in the province will be basically balanced next year. In the first quarter, it is expected to continue the loosening momentum since the fourth quarter of this year; as the country's various economic control policies are gradually introduced, the second quarter may gradually stabilize," said Yang Deyu.

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